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Foreign Policy
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes1.5%▲0.1ppNo98.4%C
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes3.2%▲1.1ppNo96.7%U
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?December 31, 20266.5%▼1ppDecember 31, 202741%▼0.5ppJune 30, 202723.5%▲0.5ppU
US strike on Mexico by...?December 312.4%U
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by...?December 31, 20264.6%▲1.4ppJune 30, 202719%▲1.5ppDecember 31, 202728%▼0.5ppU
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?December 31, 20264%▼0.4ppDecember 31, 202719%▼1.5ppJune 30, 202712.5%▼0.5ppU
Ukraine election called by...?December 31, 20263%▼0.1ppJune 30, 202739.5%December 31, 202759%▼3ppW
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?North Korea3.7%▲0.4ppJapan7.7%▲3.4ppSouth Korea15.5%▲6ppN
NATO article 5 before 2027?Yes1.7%▼0.4ppNo98.2%U
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Yes1.8%▼0.1ppNo98.1%W
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?December 31, 20263.5%▼1ppW
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?December 310.6%▼0.1ppApril 300%▼0.1ppJune 300% 