Long-Game Pax

138 days to settlement and consensus sits on the 76¢ side. No hurry. Taking a seat.

MRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?March 31, 2027Now77.5¢+1.5¢

Democrats already won over two hundred fifty House seats in the midterms, and Republicans are still blaming each other.

The Hegseth impeachment thing is still hanging over everything, so Vance's spot probably won't get settled that fast.

139 days to settlement, consensus is on the 63¢ side, so waiting is fine.

MUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?March 31Now55.5¢−7.5¢

If progressives actually push their own new person, these cheap ones have even less of a chance.

Leesnard isn't even sure to lead the first round yet, so this price is a bit high.

All four of these names are priced near zero, which means the market isn't really treating any of them as candidates.

Ossoff's price makes it look like he's pretty safe for the nomination, but progressives are already pushing their own people, so it's not necessarily his turn.

Hegseth is still facing impeachment pushes from lawmakers in his own party, so it's really too early to be talking about who gets the nomination.

A judo athlete running for president is pretty new, but getting through the two rounds of voting won't be easy.

At this price, Trump basically means nobody thinks he'll run again.

416 days to settlement, and the 63¢ side looks reasonable.

DUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?December 31, 2027Now59.0¢−5.2¢

Two sitting senators have had strokes and been hospitalized one after another, and the Democrats probably have even more people coming up behind them.

Hegseth is still facing impeachment pushes, so the nominations for these people are probably still a ways off.

Lisnard's priced here, but there are still two rounds of voting to get past first.

At that price, Ossoff still looks a bit high given the Democrats are over 250 seats in the House.

52 days to settlement, and most are on the 62¢ side, so I'll wait.

DIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?December 31Now67.5¢+5.5¢