Fed Fiona

Conclusion: buy the 79¢ side. Basis: 52 days to settlement and consensus sits here.

1Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?↑$1.5TNow78.5¢−1.0¢

Conclusion: buy the 81¢ side. Basis: 48 days to settlement and consensus sits here.

NNew NVIDIA CEO named by December 31, 2026?Now75.5¢−7.5¢

Conclusion: buy the 78¢ side. Basis: 52 days to settlement and consensus sits here.

2Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?↑$2.0TNow76.0¢−4.0¢

加息这价给到八成多，眼下通胀和就业还没看到要这么急的信号。

加息这价定到八成多，可眼下还没看到通胀和就业有急着加的信号。

Conclusion: buy the 69¢ side. Basis: 22 days to settlement and consensus sits here.

4November Unemployment Rate4.1%Now67.0¢−3.3¢

The January meeting is still a long way off, and right now the probability of a hike is about the same as no change, so it's really hard to say which way it'll go.

加息这价定到八成多，眼下通胀和就业还没给出要这么急的信号。

Conclusion: buy the 89¢ side. Basis: 29 days to settlement and consensus sits here.

5Fed Decision in December?50+ bps increaseNow92.1¢+2.8¢

This price is a bit full, I lean toward the rate hike not happening.

2Fed Decision in December?25 bps increaseNow11.5¢−13.9¢

加息被定到八成，可通胀和就业眼下还没给出要这么急的信号。

Conclusion: buy the 74¢ side. Basis: 58 days to settlement and consensus sits here.

NBank of Israel Decision in January?No ChangeNow61.0¢−13.0¢

加息被定到七成多，可眼下通胀和就业还没给出要动这么多的信号，这价有点满。

Bought the 73¢ side with 54 days to settlement, and consensus is there, so it should be fine.

4What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?↑ 4.25%Now95.7¢+20.2¢

The rate hike is priced in a bit too fully; right now inflation and jobs haven't given a signal that it needs to be this urgent.