How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in November?
$8,994 VolSettles Dec 1
MarketChance
4.99%
$1,524 Vol.
85%▲14pp
5.03%
$1,066 Vol.
65%▲12pp
5.07%
$985 Vol.
33%▼6.5pp
5.12%
$910 Vol.
18%▼9.5pp
5.17%
$692 Vol.
4.5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
